The Pipeline

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Welcome to the Pipeline, Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.‘s newsletter, a “pipeline” of relevant and useful information, focused on recent trends, changes, and advances in the mortgage investor’s market.

Issue No. 192 | Dec 2025

WINTER INTERREGNUM
Eknath Belbase

As 2025 closes, we have a rates environment that is range-bound but with significant uncertainty as to direction. Additionally, house price growth has become quite differentiated across regions, with multiple states showing anemic/flat to slightly decreasing HPI and others continuing to grow at “normal” rates.

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THE IMPACT OF BORROWER COST SHOCKS ON HPA AND CREDIT RISK: A LOOK AT FIVE STATES & ONE MSA
Eknath Belbase, Alex Levin

In 2022 we examined the impact of insurance premiums on Florida house prices. Using Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.’s (AD&Co) Climate-Conditioned Home Price Appreciation model (ccHPA), we showed that the impact primarily affects significantly negative (stressed) house price scenarios, such as those used in the determination of G-fees, mortgage insurance (MI) charges, and economic capital.

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TRENDS IN THE HOME EQUITY SECTOR
Abe Martin

Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) has partnered with Cotality to provide model and performance coverage for origination and performance data for both home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and home equity closed-end loans (HELs). The dataset covers home equity loans from January 2002 to present.

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© 2025 Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. All rights reserved. You must receive permission from marketing@ad-co.com prior to copying, displaying, distributing, publishing, reproducing, or retransmitting any of the content contained in The Pipeline.
This publication is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, and suitability for any purpose are not guaranteed. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this publication constitutes (1) investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice or (2) any recommendation or solicitation to purchase, hold, sell, or otherwise deal in any investment. This publication has been prepared for general informational purposes, without consideration of the circumstances or objectives of any particular investor. Any reliance on the contents of this publication is at the reader’s sole risk. All investment is subject to numerous risks, known and unknown. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For investment advice, seek a qualified investment professional. Note: An affiliate of Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. engages in trading activities in securities that may be the same or similar to those discussed in this publication.

The Pipeline Archive

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Date:
12-2025
Issue:
192
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: WINTER INTERREGNUM
Date:
12-2025
Issue:
192
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Alex Levin
Title: THE IMPACT OF BORROWER COST SHOCKS ON HPA AND CREDIT RISK: A LOOK AT FIVE STATES & ONE MSA
Date:
12-2025
Issue:
192
Author:
Abe Martin
Title: TRENDS IN THE HOME EQUITY SECTOR
Date:
09-2025
Issue:
191
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: A TURN INTO FALL
Date:
09-2025
Issue:
191
Author:
Alex Levin
Title: AD&CO’S HPI OUTLOOK UPDATE: FLAT, WEAKLY GROWING
Date:
09-2025
Issue:
191
Author:
Alex Levin
Title: COMPARATIVE VALUATION OF CRTS WITH AND WITHOUT EMBEDDED GSE CALLS
Date:
09-2025
Issue:
191
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: INTRODUCING PILOT PROJECTS FOR CLIMATE IMPACT SUITE
Date:
06-2025
Issue:
190
Author:
Mickey Storms
Title: INSIGHTS FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE
Date:
06-2025
Issue:
190
Author:
Daniel Swanson
Title: A GUIDE TO VA CHURNING
Date:
06-2025
Issue:
190
Author:
Eric Limjoco
Title: DRIVING SHARPER INSIGHTS WITH THE KINETICS REPORTING ENGINE
Date:
02-2025
Issue:
189
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: VEGAS EDITION
Date:
02-2025
Issue:
189
Author:
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Title: 2025 CCAR: SUPERVISORY SCENARIOS FOR STRESS-TESTING THROUGH AD&CO’S ANALYTICS
Date:
02-2025
Issue:
189
Author:
Eric Limjoco
Title: REST EASY WITH THE KINETICS API
Date:
02-2025
Issue:
189
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: VALIDATING CLIMATE IMPACTS: RECENT EVIDENCE
Date:
12-2024
Issue:
188
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: FARM LOANS, UPDATING CCY & WHOLE LOANS PART II
Date:
12-2024
Issue:
188
Author:
Sanjeeban Chatterjee
Title: USING LOANDYNAMICS MODEL TO MODEL FARM LOANS
Date:
12-2024
Issue:
188
Author:
Feiqi Jiang
Alex Levin
Title: AD&CO DEVELOPS A NEW CURRENT COUPON YIELD MODEL
Date:
12-2024
Issue:
188
Author:
Vivian Li
Richard Cooperstein
Title: WHOLE LOAN DYNAMICS AND INSURANCE COMPANY MORTGAGE PURCHASES [PART II]
Date:
09-2024
Issue:
187
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: FALLING INTO FALL
Date:
09-2024
Issue:
187
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: FALLING RATES AND MORTGAGE MARKET IMPACTS
Date:
09-2024
Issue:
187
Author:
Matteo Caracciolo-King
Alex Levin
Title: AD&CO UPDATES ITS HOME-PRICE INDEX MODEL (HPI3)
Date:
09-2024
Issue:
187
Author:
Mickey Storms
Matteo Caracciolo-King
Title: PROFILING RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE INVESTMENTS AT INSURANCE COMPANIES
Date:
06-2024
Issue:
186
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: HIGHER FOR EVEN LONGER?
Date:
06-2024
Issue:
186
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Michelle Stepien Breier
Title: IMPROVING MORTGAGE DATA: A DATA EXCHANGE FOR THE MORTGAGE ECOSYSTEM
Date:
06-2024
Issue:
186
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Title: ABILITY-TO-REPAY BENCHMARK UPDATE
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: LEAPING INTO 2024
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: MACRO-CONSIDERATIONS & TWO-SIDED MORTGAGE RISK
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Connor Campbell
Title: SHIFTING GEARS BACK TO FUNDAMENTALS
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Title: 2024 CCAR SCENARIOS: MANDATORY AND EXPLORATORY STRESS-TESTING THROUGH AD&CO’S ANALYTICS
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Andrew Davidson
Title: FINANCIAL EDUCATION MUST KEEP UP WITH THE TIMES
Date:
12-2023
Issue:
184
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: RETURN OF TWO-WAY RATE RISK
Date:
12-2023
Issue:
184
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Vivian Li
Title: MSR VALUATION AND HEDGING STRATEGIES VIA MSRKINETICS
Date:
12-2023
Issue:
184
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Title: GSE CAPITAL POLICY FUNDAMENTALS
Date:
09-2023
Issue:
183
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: SPREADS, CURRENT COUPON & ccLDM
Date:
09-2023
Issue:
183
Author:
Mickey Storms
Title: BATTLE OF THE BULGE: MORTGAGE RATES TO TREASURY
Date:
09-2023
Issue:
183
Author:
Alex Levin
Title: RETROSPECTIVE CURRENT COUPON MBS MEASURES AND MODELS
Date:
09-2023
Issue:
183
Author:
Joni Baker
Eknath Belbase
Title: INTRODUCING CLIMATE CONDITIONED LDM (ccLDM)
Date:
06-2023
Issue:
182
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: HIGHER FOR A BIT LONGER
Date:
06-2023
Issue:
182
Author:
Alex Levin
Title: AD&CO’S HPI OUTLOOK UPDATE: FLAT, BUT MULTIDIRECTIONAL
Date:
06-2023
Issue:
182
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Kevin Lin
Michelle Stepien Breier
Title: UTILIZING IMPACT TRENDED CREDIT THROUGH AD&CO’S NEW LOANDYNAMICS MODULE IN KINETICS
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: THE SFVEGAS 2023 EDITION
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Tom Parrent
Title: THE MEANDERING S-CURVE: UNRAVELING DYNAMIC PREPAYMENT INCENTIVE BEHAVIOR
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Title: 2023 CCAR SCENARIOS: A DECADE OF EMPOWERING STRESS-TESTING THROUGH AD&CO’S ANALYTICS
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: OUR PLAN FOR A CLIMATE IMPACT SUITE
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Joni Baker
Richard Cooperstein
Sanjeeban Chatterjee
Title: A LOOK AT UTILITY PAYMENTS AND THEIR POSITIVE IMPACT ON FUTURE MORTGAGE PERFORMANCE
Date:
12-2022
Issue:
180
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: THE HOLIDAY ISSUE
Date:
12-2022
Issue:
180
Author:
Michelle Stepien Breier
Title: ACCESSING AD&CO MODELS THROUGH THIRD-PARTY ANALYTICS PROVIDERS
Date:
12-2022
Issue:
180
Author:
Sanjeeban Chatterjee
Title: TUNING LDM FOR THE NEW ALT-A MARKET
Date:
11-2022
Issue:
179
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: THE CHANGING
Date:
11-2022
Issue:
179
Author:
Mickey Storms
Title: TURN AND FACE THE STRANGE . . . CHANGES