Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
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Now Available: AD&Co’s Quantitative PerspectivesThoughtsRecently, aggregators have crossed market borders by issuing residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by owner-occupied (OO), GSE-eligible conforming loans. Additionally, conforming mortgage loans have drawn investment interest from insurance companies fronted by aggregators and evaluated by third-party firms. These developments constitute historically rare disintermediations of the nearly monopsonist purchases of conforming loans by the GSEs.
We're thrilled to announce our latest Quantitative Perspectives where Mickey Storms and Alex Levin present examples of how Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) financial engineering techologies can be used by loan sellers and originators to fully evaluate the economics of GSE-conforming loan pricing, GSE credit fees, and loan sale options. Click below to read the full paper.
This paper will be a valuable resource for your work. A login is required for access. If you have any questions or would like to discuss the content in more detail, please contact support@ad-co.com.
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AD&Conversations: Trends in the Home Equity SectorPodcastJoin Rob Landauer in a conversation with Abe Martin as they discuss his recent Pipeline article, "Modeling the Balance Behavior of HELOC Borrowers." In this episode, they highlight key points from the article as he shares insights into the draw component of HELOCs and provide an update on the beta release of our much-anticipated industry HELOC model.
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Industry Leaders in Fixed-Income Analytics, Kelli Sayres and Gene Park, join Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.News
We’re excited to announce a major addition to the Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) team. Industry leaders Kelli Sayres and Gene Park, known for building and scaling leading fixed-income analytics platforms, have joined AD&Co’s Business Development team. With decades of experience, deep client partnerships, and a shared commitment to rigorous quantitative analytics, their arrival marks an exciting new chapter for our firm and the clients we serve.
Read the full press release to learn more about their backgrounds, recent work at Numerix, formerly known as PolyPaths and what this means for AD&Co.
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White Paper: Evaluating GSE Servicing Rights With Extended Consumer Credit Data: Valuation and Sensitivity AnalysisThoughtsBuilding on our earlier research on expanded consumer attributes, AD&Co continues to explore how credit data contributes to modeling delinquency and prepayment risk, which are key drivers of mortgage servicing rights cash flows and valuation.
Our latest analysis shows that while modern credit scores capture important borrower behavior, there is still meaningful explanatory power beyond any single score. Across 2,000+ consumer attributes, additional variables provide incremental insight into loan performance and mortgage servicing rights valuation dynamics.
Read Now
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Andrew Davidson Featured on the One On One with Greg SherEventsAndrew Davidson recently joined NFM Lending’s Greg Sher on the One On One podcast to discuss our recent white paper, “The Impact of Moving Away From the Tri-Merge Standard.”
In the conversation, Andrew shares insights on the evolving credit score landscape and what these changes could mean for mortgage modeling and risk assessment.
You can listen to the full discussion here:
The S-Curve Archives
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EventsAt Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co), our dedication to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) has been a cornerstone of our values. We established our DEI Committee in 2020, following the tragic murder of George Floyd. Despite the evolving landscape, including the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision impacting affirmative action in higher education, we remain steadfast in our commitment to fostering an inclusive environment that strengthens both our employees and the company.
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PodcastTune in to Eknath Belbase's interview with Michelle Stepien Breier & Richard Cooperstein as they discuss their latest Pipeline article “Improving Mortgage Data: A Data Exchange for the Mortgage Ecosystem.” -
EventsAndy and I recently attended AmeriCatalyst ‘Going to Extremes’ Climate, Housing and Finance Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C., a fantastic conference on all things related to climate risk and the housing ecosystem. While going over all the great speakers and broad expertise represented there would take a novella, I want to connect a few key ideas discussed there to our ongoing efforts in this area.
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EventsAt the recent AmeriCatalyst ‘Going to Extremes’ Climate, Housing and Finance Leadership Summit, I presented a session on how risks related to weather-related losses impact the housing finance system.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is thrilled to announce an expanding relationship with a Third-Party Vendor! AD&Co enjoys working with countless analytical providers to offer our clients seamless solutions and we would like to welcome Milliman M-PIRe™ to the team!
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EventsThe Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco directed the Urban Institute to develop innovative and actionable ideas to close the gap between white and black homeownership rates, which is as wide today as before the Fair Housing Act, enacted 60 years ago. Homeownership is crucial to a fairer society because working and middle-class families most commonly create inter-generational wealth by owning homes with amortizing mortgages.
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EventsThe Data Foundation of Mortgage Finance
Homeownership is the largest source of wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfer for the working and middle class. However, the non-interest cost of financing is always an obstacle for first-time and low-wealth buyers, and underserved populations.
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ThoughtsIn this blog post, we used the recently updated Mortgage Market Statistical Annual to examine the dynamics of residential loan origination by state and by market segments and highlight important trends.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of Kinetics v1.10, the latest update to AD&Co’s modular platform for running the AD&Co suite of analytics. This update introduces the Multifamily LoanDynamics Module, the newest way to run Multifamily LoanDynamics Model (LDM). Investors, servicers, insurers and lenders can leverage this new module to better understand the prepayment and credit risk of their multifamily mortgage portfolio.
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EventsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) held a webinar on June 8th entitled “Lessons Learned: Insights for Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Banks.” Mickey Storms from our Alliances and Policies team, Alex Levin from our Financial Engineering team and Andrew Davidson were featured speakers.